For Kalshi and Polymarket traders
Realize what your
losses are worth.
Connect Kalshi and we’ll turn four years of losses into a deduction on your next tax bill — or a refund on the taxes you already paid.
No card required.
Estimated refund
$2,046
30% Income Tax @ $6,821 Lost
Try it now
See what you could save on your taxes.
Losses can be carried forward, saving you money for years to come.
Quick estimate
Estimate — not tax advice
W-2, 1099, household — whatever shows up on line 11.
Sets your bracket and the loss cap ($1,500 if married filing separately).
Net losing year on Kalshi / Polymarket. We'll find the exact number when you connect.
Estimated federal tax savings
$720
- Off your income this year, at your 24% rate$720
Your $20,000loss doesn’t expire — it offsets future capital gains in full first, then up to $3,000/yr against other income, carrying forward indefinitely until it’s used. What you pocket is that deduction times your rate, not the loss itself. Spent purely against income it’d take roughly 7 years— a projection that assumes no offsetting gains and the same bracket. §1256 and standard capital-loss treatment both land near $720 this year; §1256’s extra lever — the three-year loss carryback — pays off if you had a winning year (add one above).
Federal estimate only. Ignores state tax, other capital activity, and NIIT. Not tax advice.
01 — Why Realize
Most Kalshi and Polymarket traders never claim a dollar of their losses.
Prediction markets don’t send you a 1099, and no tax software recognizes them — so losses that could put money back in your pocket never make it onto a return. Filed right, a losing year either earns a refund now or cuts your tax bills for years to come.
0of 47
Tax tools we tested that actually handle Kalshi.
TurboTax, H&R Block, FreeTaxUSA, TaxSlayer, CoinTracker, Koinly — we checked. None of them know what a prediction market is. Most lump it in with sports betting, which gets the opposite tax treatment.
$400/hr
What a CPA charges to figure it out.
If they’ll touch it at all. Most Google it on your dime.
3 years
Losses can be carried forward.
Reducing your tax bill for years to come.
Connect once. We do the rest.
Link Kalshi in 60 seconds.
Read-only API connection. We pull your full trade history — this year and the last three.
We calculate your real P&L, contract by contract.
We compute the profit or loss on every contract, strip out the fees, and total your wins and losses for each tax year.
Form 6781, Schedule D, Form 1040. Ready to file.
We generate the exact forms you and your CPA need — with the 60/40 split applied to your §1256-eligible contracts and carried through to Schedule D. Claim a refund this year or carry losses forward to cut future bills. Export to TurboTax, your CPA, or PDF.
What you actually get
The forms your accountant wants.
Filled in. Ready to send.
A losing year on Kalshi isn’t money gone — it’s a deduction. Here’s the exact form we generate, and what that loss is actually worth to you.
| 1 | Identification of account | Kalshi LLC — Account ****8421 |
| 2 | Gross gains on §1256 contracts (closed + MTM) | $4,200.00 |
| 3 | Gross losses on §1256 contracts (closed + MTM) | −$15,150.00 |
| 5 | Net gain or loss | −$10,950.00 |
| 8 | Short-term capital gain or loss — 40% ↳ Flows to Schedule D line 4 | −$4,380.00 |
| 9 | Long-term capital gain or loss — 60% ↳ Flows to Schedule D line 11 | −$6,570.00 |
Section 1256 contracts use mark-to-market accounting — every open position is treated as sold on Dec 31 at fair value. The net is aggregated, never lot-by-lot, and is exempt from wash-sale rules (§1091).
of losses — every dollar claimed
Used once, nothing left on the table
$3,000— off your taxable income this year
IRC §1211(b) · every year · ≈ $720 back at a 24% bracket
$7,950— your call (not both):
Carry it back for a refund against prior-year §1256 gains (§1212(c)), or
Carry it forward — offsets future capital gains in full, or $3k/yr of income (§1212(b))
We model both and apply whichever puts more in your pocket.
* Illustrative figures. Your actual result reflects your real Kalshi activity, your prior-year §1256 gains, and your bracket. §1256 treatment of prediction-market contracts is an unsettled area with no specific IRS guidance — confirm your position with a tax professional. Carry-back is limited to your prior-year §1256 gains and can’t create a net operating loss.
From the founder
“I built Realize after watching a friend overpay $4,200 in taxes on his Kalshi wins — because nobody’s tax software knows what a §1256 contract is. So I built one that does.”
Owen Monagan
Founder, Realize
Security & data
Your trades. Your forms. Nobody else’s.
Read-only Kalshi access
We connect via Kalshi's official API in read mode. We can't see your password, place trades, or move your money.
Encrypted at rest, US-hosted
Your trade history is encrypted in storage and in transit. All data lives in US-based infrastructure on Google Cloud.
Never sold, never shared
Your data is used to generate your tax forms and nothing else. No ad networks, no resellers, no surprise integrations.
Frequently asked.
Section 1256 contracts (which include Kalshi event contracts) get unique treatment: 60% of your net gain or loss is taxed at long-term capital-gains rates and 40% at short-term, regardless of holding period. Losses first offset any other capital gains you have. Up to $3,000 of any remaining net capital loss reduces ordinary income each year under §1211(b), with the rest carrying forward. Net §1256 losses can also be carried back three years against prior §1256 gains under §1212(c) — that election is often the biggest payout. Realize runs all three paths and shows you the largest one.